Editorial:
LED Lightbulbs: Success at $99, $50, $25 and $15
... One assumes that I'm not the only one in the world to receive the "interesting" LED and solid state lighting spam showing me the latest and greatest "incandescent replacements". We get the company-generated press releases here, as well, and hopefully succeed at getting them vetted, put in a little... Read the editorial...
(if it resists... go here)
May 13, 2008...Cree Inc., the maker of the XLamp family of LEDs based in Durham, North Carolina USA, has extended its XLamp XR-C high power LEDs to include a range of colors. The new colors include Royal Blue, Blue, Green, Amber, Red-Orange, and Red. Cree notes that like other members of the XR-C family, the new LEDs have the same isolated thermal path, offer low thermal resistance, and provide highly reliable operation. Cree also pointed out that the LEDs can be used to upgrade other XR products because the new color XR-C LEDs have same footprint.
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Topco Technologies and Panasonic Communications to Collaborate on Efficient LED Street Lights with Security Camera Systems LiGHTimes Staff
May 13, 2008...Topco Technologies of Taiwan has reportedly signed a collaboration agreement with Panasonic Communications to develop efficient LED street lights integrated with security camera systems, according to an article in Digitimes. Topco said product shipments are expected to start in the second fiscal quarter of 2008. Unlike previous LED streetlight technology, the new devices combine the efficiency of LEDs with security control technology. Topco noted that operation and brightness of the street lights can be remotely controlled. Also Topco said the lights can double overall efficiency. In the article Topco indicated that there are on-going projects in England, Australia, Germany, and Japan. Beginning in the third quarter, the company expects increasing demand for LED street lighting to drive company growth for the remainder of 2008.
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Marl International Gets Contract to Supply LED Downlights to Amtrak LiGHTimes Staff
May 13, 2008...Marl International of Ulverston, UK, announced a sales agreement with U.S. passenger railway company Amtrack in which Marl will provide LED downlights to be installed in Superliner 1 diner carriages. According to Amtrak, these diner carriages will be converted to diner lounges, and the LED downlight installation will be part of the conversion.
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Intematix Technology Center Introduces LED “Chip on Ceramic” Solutions for General Purpose Lighting LIGHTimes Staff
May 8, 2008...Intematix of Fremont, California USA, a company that has been a pioneer in phosphors and material technology and has started offering LED lighting components such as a line of patented “chip on ceramic” LEDs and LED arrays. The new LEDs and LED arrays are reportedly available through its subsidiary, Intematix Technology Center (ITC) of Yang Mei, Taiwan. The company says that the solid state lighting components leverage the company’s expertise in phosphors and material development. The new line of components offers high-efficiency LED components across a full range of color temperatures. According to Intematix, typical performance from its 8000K cool white production device is 80 lumens/watt. The company indicates that warm white 3300K devices typically deliver 70 lumens/watt from the packaged 1 watt devices.
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Epistar Added to List of LED Makers to Settle with Rothschild LiGHTimes Staff
May 8, 2008...Sidley Austin LLP, the law firm representing Professor Gertrude Neumark Rothschild in her case against numerous companies for patent infringement, announced Rothschild has settled her patent infringement claims against Epistar Corporation of Taiwan. The terms of the settlement were not disclosed. Professor Neumark had previously settled patent infringement claims against Toyoda Gosei, a Japanese entity, Osram, a German corporation, and against Philips Lumileds this past May for an undisclosed terms.
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Future Lighting Solutions and NEC Electronics America Introduce Intelligent Constant High-Current Driver with Microcontroller LIGHTimes Staff
May 8, 2008...Future Lighting Solutions (FLS), a division of Future Electronics and a Philips Lumileds Certified Partner based in Santa Clara, California USA, introduced what it claims is the first intelligent constant High-Current Driver (HCD) with microcontroller (MCU). The company says that its new HCD/LED MCU can be used to drive multiple LEDs. Additionally, the company notes that the device can be utilized in applications such as stepping motors, solenoid drives, and switch-mode power supplies. FLS says that the new device combines an NEC Electronics’ 8-bit All Flash microcontroller with a four-channel, economical and small footprint HCD that helps reduce system costs by allowing a smaller number of external components.
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Acuity Brands Enters Strategic Alliance with Lighting Science Group to Accelerate the Development and Marketing of LED Products SSLDesign News Staff
May 8, 2008...Acuity Brands Lighting, Inc. (ABL) , a holly-owned subsidiary Acuity Brands of Atlanta, Georgia USA has entered into a strategic alliance with Lighting Science Group Corporation (LSG) to develop and launch LED-based lighting products. ABL will add the products to its established portfolio which includes: Lithonia Lighting, Holophane, Hydrel, and Gotham. ABL announced that it will jointly develop the selected new LED-based lighting products with LSG for architectural, commercial, industrial, and public infrastructure use. ABL says that the alliance will leverage its channel strength, product innovation, delivery capabilities, and brand recognition in combination with LSG’s LED technology know-how, speed of innovation, and rapid design capabilities.
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Philips Lumileds Opens Doors to Luxeon Data and Models Online SSLDesign News Staff
May 8, 2008...While several companies such as Cree, and Osram have made a wide variety of online resources available for customers and potential customers to develop LED products, Philips Lumileds (maker of Luxeon LEDs) has taken it a step further. Philips Lumileds is now offering a wide variety of files that can be downloaded and used by engineers to more easily design LED products using their solutions.
The company points out that users can download optical, mechanical and electrical models for LUXEON LEDs that can be used in designers’ software applications to reduce development time, speed time to market, and deliver the best possible solutions and products.
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Avago Introduces Autofocus LED for Cameras and Camera Phones LIGHTimes Staff
May 6, 2008...Avago Technologies, based in San Jose, California USA, announced a miniature autofocus LED for use in digital still cameras and camera phones. Avago boasts that the ASMT-FJ30 autofocus LED can fit on the head of a pencil eraser. The company says that the device is ideal for auxillary autofocus flash in camera applications requiring long distance illumination and a narrow radiation pattern.
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Global Sources Report Says Greater China's LED Lighting Manufacturers Predict Export Boom LIGHTimes Staff
May 6, 2008...Global Sources of Hong Kong has published its China Sourcing Report for LED Light Fixtures. According to the report 81 percent of Greater China LED light fixture suppliers surveyed predict strong export growth of 10 percent or more in the next 12 months. The primary reason cited by the companies for the strong growth is a wider range of LED-based general lighting applications. ''The use of LEDs in functional everyday lighting is moving into the mainstream, especially in developed markets. This, in turn, is fueling product development, with Greater China manufacturers seeking to gain an edge through improved performance and application flexibility,'' said the Report's publisher Spenser Au.
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Commentary & Perspective...
LED Lightbulbs: Success at $99, $50, $25 and $15 Tom Griffiths - Publisher
May 1, 2008...One assumes that I'm
not the only one in the world to receive the "interesting" LED and solid
state lighting spam showing me the latest and greatest "incandescent replacements".
We get the company-generated press releases here, as well, and hopefully succeed
at getting them vetted, put in a little perspective and reporteed to you in a
timely manner. A recent one that was very "eco-oriented" caught my attention
as representing an approach to market to the consumers rather than "the lighting
industry", and while giving it some thought, I concluded that it represented
"a phase" that the solid state lighting industry is currently in.
As we dug into the details, some of the claims are a bit of a stretch when offered
without data to back it up. That doesn't mean they weren't true, but in consumer-oriented
marketing, the impression is what counts, not the facts or qualifiers . A 50,000
hour lifetime matches the 70% lumen maintenance claim of popular packaged LEDs,
but how do you get "the system" to that level? "Light output comparable
to a 100-watt incandescent," it says, but are those inferred 1000 lumens
distributed with the same spread as a 100W A-19 globe? 13W to get that "comparable
output"? 77 lumens/watt would be an amazing luminaire efficiency with this
year's technology. Can we assume that the quality of the light is comparable for
warmth or color rendering? (Highly doubtful). "Under $6 a year to run".
If it's expensive electricity, we could estimate it at $0.15 per kWh. That's a
run time of 3077 hours out of the 8760 available each year. Pretty heavy use,
and an important part of the economic case since the 13W vs 100W savings is about
$.013 (1.3 cents) per running hour. We'd be giving residential lighting the benefit
of the doubt to average 5 hours a night every night, which is about 1800 hours,
or an annual savings of about $24. $99 bulb, 4 year payback for a heavy usage,
all else being equal (meaning that it's truly "comparable" in output
and quality and stays that way for at least those 7200 hours). But consumers don't
ask those questions, and it will be simply, "Is the light quality as good
and bright?" and if it doesn't die in 4 or 5 years, they'll assume that things
worked out in their favor.
That led to giving some thought to the "phases"
we might expect to see as LED lighting begins its inevitable march to total lighting
market domination. The first, which I would contend we're in now, is that of a
guilt-driven eco-fad. Eeek, we're "using more energy than we should",
producing "CO2 pollution" as a recent press conference announcement
phrased it (one assumes that fish, land animals, humans and non-photosynthetic
life forms are all "pollution" generators as well). Guilt is a perfectly
valid market force, and hopefully one that is directed at issues that have an
underlying content concerning good stewardship of resources, whatever they may
be. The "Don't Mess With Texas" anti-litter campaign comes to mind and
before that, Woodsey Owl chanting, "Give a Hoot, Don't Pollute". In
the case of LEDs and hybrid cars, as an illustrating example, the guilt is most
effectively marketed to the more affluent because the technology may not yet be
cost-effective in the standard economic sense. The earliest hybrid cars were premium
priced and not reaching a fuel cost-savings payback quick enough to beat the expense
of replacing the battery packs. While improving, I suspect it's still not the
case. Low inflation-adjusted energy prices through the 80s and 90s encouraged
a trend towards big, comfortable vehicles with only modest efficiency improvements.
Higher gas prices will encourage the hybrid and other fuel efficient vehicle technology
development. In the same way, rising energy generation and delivery costs will
continue to fuel a trend toward efficiency in a lot of sectors, lighting included.
So
much as it was with those first hybrid, this early phase of residential LED lighting,
with $99 "bulbs" would seem to be about being "eco-friendlier"
with less concern given to any economic reality. We also see a bit of "trendy
high end" getting into the mix, since LEDs do have the capability to simply
make better light. It goes where it's pointed, can fit where traditional sources
can't, and you can control the colors (either in the design, or as part of the
installed system). That's cool, it looks great, and it's not cheap. If I can afford
it, do I need to justify the $50,000 home theatre in my mansion, or is it merely
that I could afford it and I enjoy it? (I don't have either the theatre or mansion,
but who's sweating those details).
So what happens when we get to the $50
bulb or the analogous corresponding fixture prices at $100 or $150, (numbers chosen
somewhat randomly)? My expectation is the we enter the "economic case"
phase. That's the point that we'll see the marketing department take pencil to
paper and show real light outputs and quality, representative energy costs, realistic
replacement price comparisons, and so forth. Note that "real" and "representative"
start to come into play. The LED producers have really done a good job over the
last year or so of applying that mentality to fully disclose lifetime variances
with temperature or lumen efficiency variances with input power because the results
are good enough to make an LED the best light source for a number of applications.
At $50 for "the bulb" the analytical buyers, including commercial building
owners, will "see the light" and it won't just be a trendy, but a trend
that makes sense. At $25, my prediction is that we'll see more of the same, but
with the sale being "easy". Lots of word of mouth will be kicking in,
and phrases like, "the case made sense at $50, but at $25, it's a no-brainer".
Somewhere
below $20 is where the real fun will begin. I don't know if it's $19.95, $14.95
or $12.95, but somewhere in there we'll see mainstream, residential adoption kick
in big time. We tend to talk about the 25-cent common 60-watt bulb and forget
that people are happily paying $3-$5 for an individual CFL, and in some cases
like PAR- or R-38 flood or spot lights, that much or more for a good looking or
robust incandescent. The apples-to-apples case will be easy to make on the side
of a box. "Averaging 3 hours per night for 3 nights a week, this bulb/fixture
will pay for itself in just 2 years, but will last 20". "The last bulb
you'll ever need" might be a hot tag line for the baby boomers (hope it lasts
30 years, and that you do too!). By that time, the solid state lighting industry
will have word of mouth momentum on its side, and enough volume of positive economic
case stories from the previous phase to drown out most of the negative experiences
that took place in our current trendy phase. Assuming we keep that spam to a minimum...
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